Factors affecting unemployment: Colombia 1994 - 2014

Introduction

The following work has been developed using the database from World Development Indicators Dataset, is composed of 1,344 indicators and 247 regions. For this small case of research the period from 1994 to 2014 was taken. The indicators used are: gross domestic product, consumer price inflation, population growth and the unemployment rate. This case was developed based on the research carried out by Aurangzeb & amp; Asif (2013).

The main objective is to show how indicators are related to Colombia's annual unemployment rate from 1993 to 2014.

Findings

Gross domestic product and unemployment rate show an inverse proportional relationship
The coefficient of regression is -0.80 and when performing a covariance evaluation it is shown that with 95% confidence both indicators show a similar variation.

Inflation and the unemployment rate shows that there is no linear relationship, with a coefficient of variation of 0.009, although it is observed that the data could present a quadratic relation which requires a larger study for its consideration. Likewise, it can be seen that both indicators are not related in their variances, with 95% confidence.

The population growth rate and the unemployment rate show a linear relationship although it is evidenced that it is not conclusive of 0.28. Likewise, there is no correlation in their variances with 95% reliability.

CONCLUSIONS

• GDP shows a strong linear relationship with the unemployment rate.
• The effect of inflation on unemployment is not observed during this period.
• The population growth rate shows a linear relationship however, the graph shows us that it is not strong. Similarly, there is independence with its variances.
• The development of this study may yield greater results when analyzing other factors as shown by Tunah, H. (2010).

References

• Tunah, H. (2010). The Analysis of Unemployment in Turkey: Some Empirical Evidence Using Cointegration Test. European Journal of Social Sciences , 18 (1), 18-38.
• Aurangzeb & Asif (2013). Factors Effecting Unemployment A Cross Country Approach. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences ,3(1). 219230
• • M. Probabilidad y Estadística para Ingeniería, Octava edición, México, Prentice hall hispanoamericana, 2007.
• https://docs.scipy.org/doc/scipy/reference